耦合魔方——一个分析人地系统耦合机理的多维框架   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

刘海猛  方创琳  方恺 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(3):355-377

Understanding the interactions between humans and nature in the Anthropocene is central to the quest for both human wellbeing and global sustainability.However,the time-space compression,long range interactions,and reconstruction of socio-economic structures at the global scale all pose great challenges to the traditional analytical frameworks of human-nature systems.In this paper,we extend the connotation of coupled human and natural systems(CHANS)and their four dimensions—space,time,appearance,and organization,and propose a novel framework:“Coupled Human and Natural Cube”(CHNC)to explain the coupling mechanism between humans and the natural environment.Our proposition is inspired by theories based on the human-earth areal system,telecoupling framework,planetary urbanization,and perspectives from complexity science.We systematically introduce the concept,connotation,evolution rules,and analytical dimensions of the CHNC.Notably there exist various“coupling lines”in the CHNC,connecting different systems and elements at multiple scales and forming a large,nested,interconnected,organic system.The rotation of the CHNC represents spatiotemporal nonlinear fluctuations in CHANS in different regions.As a system continually exchanges energy with the environment,a critical phase transition occurs when fluctuations reach a certain threshold,leading to emergent behavior of the system.The CHNC has four dimensions—pericoupling and telecoupling,syncoupling and lagcoupling,apparent coupling and hidden coupling,and intra-organization coupling and inter-organizational coupling.We mainly focus on the theoretical connotation,research methods,and typical cases of telecoupling,lagcoupling,hidden coupling,and inter-organizational coupling,and put forward a human-nature coupling matrix to integrate multiple dimensions.In summary,the CHNC provides a more comprehensive and systematic research paradigm for understanding the evolution and coupling mechanism of the human-nature system,which expands the analytical dimension of CHANS.The CHNC also provides a theoretical support for formulating regional,sustainable development policies for human wellbeing.  相似文献   

南海上层对台风响应的模拟研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

姜洪峰  蒋小平  杨斌  张建友 《海洋预报》2009,26(1)

利用中尺度海气耦合模式对2006年第1号台风Chanchu海气相互作用的模拟结果.分析了南海上层海洋对台风的热力和动力响应特征.研究发现:模拟的chanchu影响下南海SST分布与观测较为符合;与SST降低相对应的是混合层深度普遍增加,较大的海面冷却对应了较大的混合层加深;在台风作用下,海面上产生了一个气旋式环流,随着台风中心的移动而移动.流场呈现明显的不对称结构;模拟结果表明南海对台风的响应具有很明显的近惯性振荡特征.  相似文献   

基于共生金属硫化物硫同位素分馏程度约束热液活动温度：以川中下寒武统龙王庙组为例          下载免费PDF全文

刘大卫  蔡春芳  扈永杰  姜磊  王石  彭燕燕  李映涛  李汉敖 《古地理学报》2023,25(1):215-225

硫循环及硫同位素(δ³⁴S)分馏研究对地表圈层的成岩作用具有重要意义,其中多种金属硫化物中硫同位素的分馏程度可以约束成矿热流体温度,进而作为地温计证据约束热液活动。四川盆地龙王庙组储集层内的热液改造影响着该储集层的非均质性,本研究着重讨论目的层中与热液成因白云石所伴生的黄铁矿(FeS₂)-黄铜矿(CuFeS₂)成矿现象：基于详尽的岩石学证据,应用纳米二次离子探针(NanoSIMS)对金属硫化物内部硫同位素分布进行测定,并基于热力学驱动下的硫化物间平衡分馏程度计算其成矿温度,进而约束层段内热液活动过程。研究发现：(1)微区硫同位素分布显示黄铁矿(FeS₂)与黄铜矿(CuFeS₂)沉淀过程中不仅存在热力学分馏,还存在动力学分馏现象,其中动力学分馏程度可以达到40.1‰,应用NanoSIMS微区测定手段可以有效剔除动力学分馏数据影响,获取热力学平衡分馏数据;(2)黄铁矿(FeS₂)与黄铜矿(CuFeS₂)成矿过程或利用不同的硫源,其中黄铁矿...  相似文献   

21世纪前期中国降水预估及其订正     

张蓓  戴新刚  杨阳 《大气科学》2019,43(6):1385-1398

用全球格点分析数据集（CRU TSv4.0）月降水资料和24个CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5）模式历史模拟数据以及RCP4.5情景下的预估数据,分析了多模式集合平均降水的偏差特征并进行了扣除模式气候漂移和一元对数差分回归订正。结果表明,模式降水在西部和北部明显偏多,东南沿海偏少;冷季（11月至次年4月）在全国大部分地区模式降水偏多,暖季（5～10月）东南沿海季风区偏少。1956～2005年多模式集合平均历史模拟降水偏差中84%属于气候漂移,其余是偏差的非定常模态。扣除气候漂移后,RCP4.5情景下2006～2015年中国模式降水预估偏差减小90%以上,大部分地区降水偏差百分率分布在±5%以内,仅在青藏高原西部和西北中部等地区模式降水偏多10%～40%;暖季降水偏差分布与年降水量类似;冷季偏差较大,北方降水偏多,南方偏少。检验表明,一元线性对数差分回归方程订正后,模式降水对于2006～2015年期间西南和江南中部的干旱少雨气候均能再现,且距平同号率高于多模式集合平均和扣除气候漂移的结果。用该方法对RCP4.5情景下2016～2035年模式预估降水进行订正,结果显示,南方（淮河以南）降水减少5%～20%,河套、内蒙古和华北北部减少20%～40%,东北南部、淮河流域、西北大部增加10%～40%及以上,东南沿海和台湾省降水增加10%～20%。以上降水预估结果说明,在RCP4.5情景下,21世纪前期持续十年的西南干旱会略有缓解,但南方降水偏少格局变化不大,淮河流域和三江源区及其以西等地降水可能明显增加。中国降水异常分布总体呈现南北少、中间多的格局,但北方和西部高山地带的降水预估存在较大的不确定性。  相似文献   

Free surface flow impacting on an elastic structure: Experiment versus numerical simulation     

《Applied Ocean Research》2015

The purpose of this study is to investigate the phenomenon of free surface flow impacting on elastic structures, which is a research topic of great interest in ship and ocean engineering. A series of quasi two-dimensional experiments on dam-break with an elastic plate are conducted. The main features of free surface flow impacting on elastic structures including large impacting force, structural vibration, violent free surface flow, are investigated. The coupled FDM–FEM method developed by the authors is applied for numerical simulation of such dam-break problem. Extensive analysis and discussion based on the comparisons between experimental data and numerical results are made and presented in this paper.  相似文献   

The level and nature of sustainability for clusters of abandoned limestone quarries in the southern Palestinian West Bank     

Jason Phillips 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):376-392

The question of how sustainable a mining site is at the end of its operational life has been somewhat unanswered. The fundamental problem has been how to evaluate the sustainability of a mining site once operations cease and is abandoned. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is certainly a way to evaluate sustainability of such sites, but only through inference and subjective evaluation. This is because the topic of sustainability still hotly debated, and is predominantly focussed on an anthropocentric approach. Even with quantitative-based EIAs, the question is how to directly evaluate sustainability from the data available using a consistent quantitative approach rather than on a case-by-case basis or subjective evaluation.However, by using the ideas and concepts concerning the coupled relationship between the environment and humans prevalent in sustainability science, the question of what is and how to evaluate sustainability has become capable of being answered. Based on previous work of the author in the development and application of a mathematical model of sustainability, the paper applies the model to the results of a quantitative EIA evaluation for nine clusters of abandoned limestone quarries located in the southern Palestinian West Bank.The results indicate that seven of the nine clusters were deemed to be unsustainable, whilst the other two clusters were considered as sustainable at a very weak level only. The results are discussed within the broader context of the coupled environment-human system using one of the supporting frameworks for the development and application of the mathematical model of sustainability: Earth System Analysis. Within this context, the discussion indicates the fact that unmanaged impacts by humans has created the situation for unsustainability to occur. The paper therefore provides for the clearest indication yet of the nature of sustainability at the end of the mining operational life-cycle without an effective and proper management strategy or policies.  相似文献   

区域海气耦合模式对我国极端降水模拟分析   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

王志福  钱永甫  林惠娟 《高原气象》2008,27(1):113-121

使用区域海气耦合模式40年的降水模拟结果,采用百分位的方法定义极端降水事件,分析了耦合模式模拟的夏季中国极端降水事件的特征。结果表明,区域海气耦合模式基本能够模拟出气候平均极端降水阈值的空间分布型及极端降水事件在长江中游、西南部分地区和长江下游局部地区的显著增加、增强趋势,在中西部、华北北部和东北局部的显著减少、减弱趋势。EOF分析发现,模式模拟的极端降水事件几个特征量在我国江南地区长江以南与华南沿海及长江以北的呈反位相变化,这一变化以年代际为主要特征。区域耦合模式基本能够模拟出极端降水量、夏季总降水量、极端降水日数两两间的高时空相关关系。  相似文献   

Upper ocean response of the South China Sea to Typhoon Krovanh (2003)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xiaoping Jiang  Zhong Zhong  Jing Jiang 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2009,47(1-3):165-175

To quantitatively investigate the dynamic and thermal responses of the South China Sea (SCS) during and subsequent to the passage of a real typhoon, a three-dimensional, regional coupled air–sea model is developed to study the upper ocean response of the SCS to Typhoon Krovanh (2003). Owing to the scarcity of ocean observations, the three-dimensional numerical modeling with high resolution, as a powerful tool, offers a valuable opportunity to investigate how the air–sea process proceeds under such extreme conditions. The amplitude and distribution of the cold path produced by the coupled model compare reasonably well with the TRMM/TMI-derived data. The maximum SST cooling is 5.3 °C, about 80 km to the right of the typhoon track, which is consistent with the well-documented rightward bias in the SST response to typhoons. In correspondence to the SST cooling, the mixed layer depth exhibits an increase; the increases in the mixed layer depth on the right of typhoon track are significantly higher than those on the left, with maxima of 58 m. This correspondence indicates that the SST cooling is caused mainly by entrainment. Under the influence of typhoon, a cyclonic, near-surface current field is generated in the upper ocean layer, which moves with the typhoon. The typhoon-induced horizontal currents in the wake of the storm have strong near-inertial oscillation, which gradually propagates downward. The unique features of the SCS response to Typhoon Krovanh are also discussed, such as Kuroshio intrusion and coastal subsurface jets.  相似文献   

区域海气耦合模式模拟中国夏季降水能力分析     

李涛  周广庆  王芳栋 《气候与环境研究》2013,18(6):701-709

基于OASIS3(Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil version 3)耦合器,耦合区域气候模式RegCM3(Regional Climate Model version 3)和海洋模式HYCOM(Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model),建立一个区域海气耦合模式,并通过嵌套方法处理海洋模式的侧边界问题。运用该耦合模式对1982～2001年包括中国在内的东亚地区气候进行连续模拟,重点分析其对中国夏季(6～8月)降水的模拟性能。结果表明:耦合模式基本可以模拟出中国夏季降水的空间分布特征,模拟的降水量值和年际变化在靠近海洋的沿海区域比参照试验有一定程度的改善;能够再现观测夏季降水经验正交函数第一模态(EOF1)的空间分布特征,与观测EOF1的时间相关性也比参照试验有较大提高;前6个模态的组合分析也表明耦合模式对长江中下游、山东半岛、海南岛等区域夏季降水的较大时间尺度气候分量的模拟改善更显著。  相似文献   

Seasonal to interannual climate predictability in mid and high northern latitudes in a global coupled model   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Torben Koenigk  Uwe Mikolajewicz 《Climate Dynamics》2009,32(6):783-798

The upper limit of climate predictability in mid and high northern latitudes on seasonal to interannual time scales is investigated by performing two perfect ensemble experiments with the global coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The ensembles consist of six members and are initialized in January and July from different years of the model’s 300-year control integration. The potential prognostic predictability is analyzed for a set of oceanic and atmospheric climate parameters. The predictability of the atmospheric circulation is small except for southeastern Europe, parts of North America and the North Pacific, where significant predictability occurs with a lead time of up to half a year. The predictability of 2 m air temperature shows a large land–sea contrast with highest predictabilities over the sub polar North Atlantic and North Pacific. A combination of relatively high persistence and advection of sea surface temperature anomalies into these areas leads to large predictability. Air temperature over Europe, parts of North America and Asia shows significant predictability of up to half a year in advance. Over the ice-covered Arctic, air temperature is not predictable at time scales exceeding 2 months. Sea ice thickness is highly predictable in the central Arctic mainly due to persistence and in the Labrador Sea due to dynamics. Surface salinity is highly predictable in the Arctic Ocean, northern North Atlantic and North Pacific for several years in advance. We compare the results to the predictability due to persistence and show the importance of dynamical processes for the predictability.  相似文献